The future is still promising

Specifically, the sharp correction in the autumn auction of 2012 was actually caused by many reasons: First, the economic environment. In the face of an unoptimistic economic situation, it is a rational choice for collectors and investors to hold tight their wallets and maintain sufficient cash to "survive the winter". Second, expectations. In many cases, expectations are more important than the current situation. Buyers' wait-and-see attitude may not be entirely because they are really ready to stay away from the art market, but may be hoping to "shop" at a lower price in the near future. Third, price. The current price of Chinese art is still very expensive overall, after all, it has been rising for so many years. To be honest, many experts who really know the business can no longer afford to buy. Fourth, the source of goods. After so many years of transactions and accumulation, the "good things" that can be publicly circulated in the market are indeed getting fewer and fewer. This is why major art auction companies in Beijing and Shanghai, and even national art auction companies, have all gone overseas to collect auction items. Fifth, credit. The credit problem in the Chinese art market has a long history, but as the market becomes increasingly popular, the severity of this problem has become increasingly prominent. For example, the phenomenon of buyers bidding but not paying, which has a far-reaching impact on the market, has a chain reaction-like impact on the entire art auction industry.

Even so, the future of China's art market is still promising. In the long run, with economic development and inflation, scarce and precious artworks will always appreciate in value. In the short term, many people tend to focus on the total transaction volume and the unit price of "sky-high" auction items when judging the prosperity of the art market. But in my opinion, the focus should be on the transaction rate indicator, which is the most intuitive indicator reflecting the "popularity" of the art market. Therefore, as long as this indicator is really getting bigger, it means that the market is warming up. The so-called correction in the art market is often just a "false drop", with "price" but no "market". The total transaction volume has dropped, but the reason may be that the seller has no intention of shipping, or the reserve price is set too high. If there are no good things on the market, how can there be "sky-high" auction items? How can there be high transaction volume? In fact, even during the correction period of the Chinese art market in 2012, the transaction status of some low- and medium-priced artworks was still very good. As long as it is a good thing, there will always be knowledgeable collectors to take it up when the price drops. This is the "rigid demand" from the collecting community.